Predictions

What these percentages are. They are prices, not forecasts. A market at 63% means people are currently paying 63 cents for a contract that pays a dollar if the event happens — which bundles the crowd's belief together with fees, spread, and how much capital is willing to sit in the trade. Thin markets move on small amounts, so treat a headline number next to a tiny 24h volume with scepticism.

On the numbers shown. Polymarket prices come straight from its public market data. Kalshi quotes in cents; where a market has not traded recently we use the midpoint between the best bid and ask rather than a stale last price, and markets with neither are dropped instead of shown at a guess. Topics are inferred from the question text, so the odd market will land in the wrong bucket — it's a convenience filter, not metadata from the exchanges.

Nothing here is a recommendation. Prediction markets are regulated differently across jurisdictions and are not available everywhere. Information only.