ADA Trade Planner

What a sell-and-buy-back round trip actually requires, how often moves that size have happened before, and what the trade would cost to execute right now.

Coinbase · Kraken book · refreshed 0m ago

This page does not tell you when to trade. Nothing here is a recommendation, a signal, or a forecast, and none of it is financial advice. It measures three things — the arithmetic of your own target, how frequently similar moves occurred in the historical record, and current visible liquidity — so the decision you make is your own and better informed. Past frequencies are not probabilities of future moves.

ADA heldADATarget gain per round tripADAFee + spread per leg%Share of stack sold

Round trip required

−5.82%

to gain 100,000 ADA by selling 1,840,000 and buying back lower

Sell around $0.2247 → buy back at or below $0.2116.

Includes 0.35% per leg both ways. That move is 1.5× ADA's recent daily swing (3.9% a day).

The other side of the same trade

If price instead rises 5.82% and you buy back there, you end with -113,306 ADA — the mirror of the win. A 10% run-up before you re-enter costs -178,961 ADA, because buying back gets more expensive faster than selling high gets cheaper. Sitting out entirely is also a position.

How often has that move actually happened?

2039 trading days · Coinbase

From every day in the record, this asks which came first within the window: price falling to your buy-back level, or rising by the same amount (where a seller is clearly worse off). Ties inside one day are counted as the rise — the unfavourable reading.

Window	Fell first	Rose first	Neither	Ever fell
7d	48%	44%	8%	59%
14d	51%	47%	2%	71%
30d	53%	47%	0%	82%
60d	52%	48%	0%	89%
90d	53%	47%	0%	92%

“Ever fell” ignores order: the share of days where price touched your level at some point in the window, even if it first ran up. Overlapping windows mean these samples are not independent, and history starts at the march 2021 coinbase listing, so the 2017–2020 cycle is not in these statistics. — so treat every figure as a rough historical frequency, not a probability of what happens next.

What execution costs right now

Kraken ADA/USD public book · snapshot at page load

Sell 100,000 ADA

$0.2246

avg fill · slippage -0.027%

Buy 100,000 ADA

$0.2248

avg fill · slippage 0.049%

Visible depth

10,293,562

ADA bid across 500 levels

Selling your whole 1,840,000 ADA as one market order would fill at about $0.224 — -0.28% of slippage on this one venue, before fees. This is one exchange's visible book in one moment; real fills differ, and hidden liquidity and other venues (Coinbase, Binance, Upbit, and Cardano DEXs like Minswap) are not counted here.

Where price has actually spent its time

Days closed inside each band over the last two years. Thick bands are prices the market has repeatedly accepted; thin ones it passed through quickly.

$1.1799–$1.22926d

$1.1305–$1.17994d

$1.0812–$1.13059d

$1.0318–$1.08129d

$0.9825–$1.031812d

$0.9331–$0.982521d

$0.8838–$0.933129d

$0.8344–$0.883832d

$0.7851–$0.834445d

$0.7357–$0.785143d

$0.6864–$0.735747d

$0.637–$0.686446d

$0.5877–$0.63734d

$0.5383–$0.587729d

$0.489–$0.53836d

$0.4396–$0.4898d

$0.3903–$0.439635d

$0.3409–$0.390346d

$0.2916–$0.340914d

$0.2422–$0.2916124d

$0.1929–$0.242258d

$0.1435–$0.192973d

Levels price has turned at

Confirmed swing highs and lows from the last 18 months.

Above spot

$0.23212026-09-08 · +3.3%

$0.25872026-08-22 · +15.1%

$0.26622026-04-07 · +18.5%

$0.26822026-04-17 · +19.4%

$0.28222026-10-06 · +25.6%

Below spot

$0.22032026-02-06 · -1.9%

$0.19012026-09-16 · -15.4%

$0.18962026-08-30 · -15.6%

$0.17112026-08-18 · -23.9%

$0.15532026-07-13 · -30.9%

A level that held before is not a level that holds again. These are records of what happened, listed so you can see them rather than guess at them.

The arithmetic, in full. Selling S ADA at a high price and buying back after a fractional drop d leaves you with S · (1−f)² / (1−d) ADA, where f is the cost of each leg. Setting the gain to your target G gives d = 1 − (1−f)² / (1 + G/S). The consequence worth internalising: halving the size you sell roughly doubles the move you need. Selling a quarter of the stack needs a move several times larger than selling all of it, because the target is fixed in ADA while the lever shrinks.

What this page cannot see. Taxes (a sale may be a taxable event where you live), staking rewards forgone while out of the position, the funding cost of sitting in cash, hidden or iceberg liquidity, and every other venue's book. It also cannot see the future: the historical frequencies here come from overlapping windows in one particular era of one asset, which is a description of the past and nothing more.

ADA Story Monthly returns Pro Charts

Information only, not investment advice.

Window	Fell first	Rose first	Neither	Ever fell
7d	48%	44%	8%	59%
14d	51%	47%	2%	71%
30d	53%	47%	0%	82%
60d	52%	48%	0%	89%
90d	53%	47%	0%	92%

Window	Fell first	Rose first	Neither	Ever fell
7d	48%	44%	8%	59%
14d	51%	47%	2%	71%
30d	53%	47%	0%	82%
60d	52%	48%	0%	89%
90d	53%	47%	0%	92%

Window	Fell first	Rose first	Neither	Ever fell
7d	48%	44%	8%	59%
14d	51%	47%	2%	71%
30d	53%	47%	0%	82%
60d	52%	48%	0%	89%
90d	53%	47%	0%	92%