FOMC Calendar & Implied Path

With the October 27–28 FOMC meeting twelve days out, the Treasury curve leans toward a hike, implying a policy rate of 3.98% — about 10 basis points above the current 3.875% midpoint — though that lean has softened meaningfully from the 4.10% the curve implied a month ago. The broader backdrop shows notable tightening in financial conditions: the dollar index has risen 3.72 points over the past month to 121.6, the 10-year yield has climbed 22 basis points to 5.19%, and the high-yield spread has widened 47 basis points to 3.23%, a combination that signals stress building in risk appetite even as the Fed's balance sheet has edged slightly higher by $15 billion to $6.76 trillion. The 2s10s spread sits at a positive 37 basis points, reflecting a normally sloped curve at the short end. Industrial Production and M2 Money Supply are the two remaining data releases before the meeting that markets will use to calibrate their expectations.